Elections in Poland

Last updated: 2023-10-13.

On October 15th, Poles will vote in what political commentators say could be one of the most important elections since 1989. I have been following this year's electoral campaign since February, and in this short post, I will summarize what I have learned.

Essentials

In Poland, there are five main types of elections: presidential, parliamentary, senate, European Parliament, and local elections. This year, we will be electing our parliament and senate representatives. Additionally, citizens are also asked to vote in a referendum and answer four questions.

The election rules differ for the parliament and the senate. Let's start with the senate, as it is much more straightforward. There are 100 seats available, and voting is spread across the same number of electoral districts. In each district, the candidate who receives the most votes is elected. It's as simple as that.

The parliament, on the other hand, is elected following the rule of proportional representation. There are 460 seats available, which are distributed across 41 districts, each with a predetermined number of seats. For each district, the seats are calculated with the D'Hondt method. It is important to understand how this method works and how it tends to favor larger parties. For a detailed explanation, you can watch this video or read page 3 of this PDF for a text version with an example. To qualify, a party must receive sufficient votes to exceed the electoral threshold, which is set at 5% for regular parties and 8% for coalitions.

You can check the candidates running in your district (and the districts themsevles) on the official governmental website here and here for the parliament and Senate respectively. If you're unsure which district you're in, you can check this in the mObywatel service (Twoje dane > Centralny Rejestr Wyborców > Okręg wyborczy).

The voting process is very simple: you will receive three documents, one for the parliament, one for the senate, and one for the referendum. You just have to mark your choice with an "X". It's as simple as that! 🙂

However, the referendum needs a special mention. According to political commentators, the referendum is a political tool used to encourage people, especially voters of the current ruling party, to participate in the elections. As a result, many people from the opposition are boycotting it. It is important to note that the referendum is optional, and you have the right to refuse to take that card (although this fact will be recorded by the commission).

Finally, I will not provide in this post information on how to vote from abroad, as it's simply best to Google the process for your specific country of residence.

Political parties

This is a simplified explanation, but the shortest tl;dr that I can provide is as follows: there are five main political parties; from left to right:

The Left (Lewica) - Left-wing party, both socially and economically.
Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska) - Main opposition party, traditionally center-right but nowadays it seems to be oscillating between the center-left and center-right. It's led by Donald Tusk and it's part of a larger coalition called Civic Coalition (KO - Koalicja Obywatelska).
Third Way (Trzecia Droga) - Smaller opposition party, oscillating at the center/center-right. It's a coalition between Polska 2050 and PSL.
Law and Justice (PiS - Prawo i Sprawiedliwość) - Ruling party, right-wing, populist. Led by Jarosław Kaczyński and part of a larger coalition called United Right (Zjednoczona Prawica).
Confederation (Konfederacja) - Amalgamation of right/far-right parties.

The Left, Civic Coalition, and Third Way form the so-called democratic opposition, which is the main conglomerate force fighting against Law and Justice. The Confederation's position is allegedly independent. For a more detailed explanation, I found this video to be fairly unbiased and generally correct. This comment on a thread on Reddit does also a good job, if you prefer a text version.

Finally, for polls, check out either ewybory.eu or Politico's Poll of Polls (also useful for other European countries). As of October 13th, PiS is leading with ~35%, KO following with ~30% and all the three smaller parties with ~10% each.

Campaign topics

Pre-campaign

Although the official campaign started in September, the pre-campaign definitely began much earlier, possibly in the summer or even in the spring. There were at least a few dozen noteworthy events, but this post is not the appropriate place to discuss them all. In summary, both the ruling party and the opposition aimed to find a popular topic that would give them an advantage.

During the summer, three main topics dominated the conversation: the commission to investigate Russian influence, the expansion of social benefits, and abortion rights (especially after the high-profile case of Joanna). Migration and national security were also starting to gain attention, becoming even more relevant later on. Additionally, double-digit inflation was a topic that was hard to ignore, especially since many people experienced it firsthand. While I won't delve into these topics further, if you're interested in a detailed description, I recommend reading the article 10 frontów kampanii (in Polish), which explores ten different themes in greater depth.

On June 4th, the opposition organized a march in Warsaw that allegedly drew half a million participants. July and August were relatively quiet due to vacations, with the notable event in my opinion being the confirmation of the Senate Pact (pl. Pakt Senacki) in mid-August. This pact is an agreement between democratic opposition parties regarding the placement of candidates for the Senate. Unfortunately, a similar agreement was not reached for the parliament, and instead of having one list, the three democratic parties (and Confederation) will start as separate committees.

Campaign

Fast forward to September and October, the proper campaign time, where several topics evolved and new ones emerged. I will skip some of them to focus on what, in my opinion, are the most relevant ones.

There has been extensive discussion about the referendum, which many political commentators believe is merely a tool to boost voter turnout. Additionally, some argue that the questions in the referendum are biased. The questions are about retirement age, national security, state assets sell off, and migration. In my opinion, migration is the most contentious topic.
Tensions between Poland and Ukraine escalated due to issues related to the transit of grain.
The ruling party has been embroiled in a visa scandal that has affected the relations with both the USA and the European Union.
On October 1st, the opposition organized a second rally called "March of a Million Hearts" (pl. Marsz Miliona Serc).
In the week leading up to the election, top Polish generals resigned just days before the voting took place.

Predictions

The reason why this year's electoral race is so exciting (and for some, certainly scary) is that there are so many unknowns. It's not certain who will win and which topic will ultimately decide (if any at all). The race between the democratic opposition and the ruling party is neck and neck, especially when considering the various potential coalitions.

In my opinion, there are three big unknowns:

One big unknown remains the Confederation, which peaked at 15% in the summer but later decreased to the expected 8-10%. However, it is still enough to be a decisive factor in the results. They claim not to be willing to form any coalition, but only time will tell.
Whether Third Way will make it to the 8% threshold. They've been averaging around 8-11% in the weeks prior to the election. Not qualifying could drastically change the final dynamics.
What will the frequency be and who undecided voters will decide to vote for? Voters of the main parties are mostly decided, so it will be up to undecided individuals to steer the direction of the result.

To secure a majority, 231 seats are required. The chart below displays the prediction, with the green dotted line denoting the halfway point. If we consider the possibility that Confederation could form a coalition with PiS, as suggested by some commentators, we can understand why the competition is so intense.

Sources of information

The Wikipedia article on mass media in Poland explains the political affiliation of the various sources of information in a clear manner. I have listened, and this is not an exaggeration, to hundreds of hours of analysis and interviews, and read dozens of articles from a range of publications - from radical left to radical right and everything in between - to form an informed opinion and cast my vote as best as I could. Perhaps unnecessarily, as I will elaborate in the next section.

I made an effort to rely on sources that are not overly sensationalist (from both sides). I found Rzeczpospolita , which is considered a newspaper of record in Poland, to be the most reliable source of news and opinions. However, I also considered other sources like Wyborcza (a center-left daily), Polityka (center-left), Do Rzeczy (right-wing).

I also watched many programs, with my favorites being: Gość Radia ZET (weekdays, interview style), Rzeczpospolita videos (weekdays, analysis), Stan Wyjątkowy (Saturday, analysis), 7 dzień tygodnia (Sunday, debate style), Śniadanie u Rymanowskiego (Sunday, debate style). I tried to avoid public television, not because it's inherently bad, but because it clearly aligns with the ruling party and presents a biased view against the opposition, to the extent that it distorts factual information.

Furthermore, I watched several important debates and live events, and even attended a few hosted in my town. To be honest, I didn't expect any groundbreaking revelations, but since I had been indecisive between two parties for a while, I was hoping to gain new insights or find inspiration.

Kondeferacja - 2023-09-30
(live)

Marsz Miliona Serc - 2023-10-01
(online)

PiS rally - 2023-10-01
(online)

Trzecia Droga - 2023-10-01
(live)

Sadeczanin Debate - 2023-10-09
(live)

National Debate - 2023-10-09
(online)

Reflections

If you've made it this far, I'll spare you a few more paragraphs and tell you straight up what I think of the situation: it's a mess 🙂 (trying to be polite here).

The current state of politics is disheartening. Rather than promoting collaboration and problem-solving, many parties are focused on polarization, promoting an "us vs them" mentality, fear-mongering, and creating a scapegoat (often the opposing party). Unfortunately, this is not a new phenomenon in politics and is occurring on a global scale. One could argue that this is the inherent nature of politics and humankind 🤷‍♂️.

There is a political war, where people treat their party affiliation as part of their identity, and some even go as far as treating politicians as celebrities. This strategy is of course convenient for politicians as it allows them to shift blame ("it's their fault") and avoid taking responsibility, all while maintaining control and manipulating people more easily.

The level of populism has also been extremely high across all parties. Polish patriotism sells particularly well, so that's what has been promoted by the ruling party. Depending on the target group, there are either more or fewer social programs, which in turn leads to lower or higher taxes.

And yet, Poland, like many Western countries, is facing numerous real challanges, including aging population, the need to implement a sensible migration policy together with the EU, and effectively navigating major geopolitical shifts occurring worldwide. Unfortunately, I believe that these problems will persist regardless of which political party is in power. The ruling party suffers from democratic backsliding, while the opposition lacks unity and a coherent message. Confederation, on the other hand, lacks political maturity and is not always transparent about its real intentions.

I believe this is the biggest disappointment: the total lack of common sense and collaboration. The level of discourse among politicians has reached an extremely low point, being offensive to anyone with even a shred of intelligence. It seems like the only person you can vote for is yourself, and you must ensure that you can adapt and survive any situation. Is this some Polish pessimism? Can’t tell. I still believe that voting is meaningful. Otherwise, I wouldn't have dedicated so much time to this endeavour. I know that my vote can still have an impact. So, which party will I vote for? The best one, of course!